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Apart from an occasional glance at a chart of Ripple I stayed away from all markets and trading. For me, it was the right choice. As part of my downtime I like to conduct a review not only of my data but also of my behaviour and my decisions, along with planning my year ahead. This blog post is part of that. I apologise for the length and the rambling nature of it. It is what it is. I figure people can learn more from my mistakes than my successes. Furthermore it shows that none of us are exempt from the human condition or perfect in our trading.

None of us are beyond reproach — we are all striving, and evolving, towards being the best trader that we can be. I wrote 2 blog pieces at the start of summer about how I sensed that we may have reached the highs and be due a healthy correction , if not a crash.

The summer came, and went, and so did my plan. For which I apologise. Markets looked like they may roll-over but in reality they just took a breather before resuming their upwards, unstoppable momentum. Even though I had a suspicion that markets may roll over that was not an indication to sell everything but I did have a few short trades on the NASDAQ which were profitable but never truly followed through.

If it kept going up then it was not ready to roll-over and he would stay away. Wise advice — if you can afford it. The next was once price had traded back up to previous highs, and then broke them, I should have bought the market. That was remiss of me.

Shame on you Paul. For the moment you have to trade what you see — and markets have been continuing North. He actually said this in Nov when people may suggest that the music had already stopped playing. If it had not stopped, the markets were certainly at that quarter-to-2 in the Disco time when you did a quick prowl of the dance floor to pull a girl for the last dance. You get what I mean. The end was nigh. Crypto — Too late to the party. I had always treated it as a bit of a fad. I remember very clearly the Dot-Com bubble.

There are many differences for me at least. During all the dot-com hype I could actually see and understand the implications of the new companies and technologies. A company that you could buy pretty much any book in the world at cheaper prices than the book store and have it delivered? Having all your Music downloaded into one cool looking gadget the size of a cigarette packet?

Being able to buy your Waitrose Groceries online and have them delivered? Com the straw that broke the camels back I could understand that here was a website that offered a one-stop shop for all your last minute holiday getaways. Furthermore the Tech companies that underpinned the internet infrastructure I could understand which was a good job as I was working in Telco and Internet Tech at the time.

Whereas Bitcoin seemed a bit of a fad for me. And my experiences just reinforced that. Another example was just before Christmas we had an electrician in to fix some lights and he was telling me about his Bitcoin holdings. I am chuffed that he has made money — but when your electrician is giving you investment advice an old cynic like me starts to get a bit grizzly.

I had monitored it for the last months but it had already sailed past my ideal entry point. I was forced to join the party at 25 cents.. So I do have some Crypto exposure, but no-where near as much as I would have liked. Furthermore in the interests of full disclosure I have not made much personal gain from my Crypto holdings. However, my 8 nieces, nephews and god-children on the other hand have done very well. Overcome your own bias and get back to being an early adopter.

My experience of the Dot-Com boom even though I did well out of it had made me overly cautious. Last year was USD — and the price action in January just confirmed that. For the first time in a good few years I have no particular bias for any particular FX pair going into this year. I shall wait and see what the markets offer up. Watch and Shoot — watch and shoot! The Comdolls have started well so far this year. I used to do it a lot. Then, not so much. Over the last 2 years I have done a little bit but on a purely opportunistic basis i.

And in the second half of I found myself returning to it. Partly because of market conditions but also partly because my schedule allowed me to structure my time better to focus upon it. Furthermore I found myself re-visiting the 1 minute chart — in particular on the DAX.

I have avoided the 1 minute for a long time. Some of you may know why. When I first started trading FX many years ago my mentor encouraged me to trade 1 minute charts. It turned out at the time that I was not very good at it. Firstly I found that it tapped into the hyper-aggressive side of me. It brought out my killer instinct, and not always in a good way. Secondly I found the 1 minute charts were too slow for me. So every 10 seconds I would have a new picture and need to make a decision: So waiting 60 seconds for a candle to complete seemed like an absolute life-time.

So on one hand I had hyper-aggressiveness rearing its head the part of Paul that wants to kill everything and on the other hand I was applying the brakes as I waited for the chart to update. So I decided to give 1 minute charts a miss many years ago. However recently I had noticed that a lot of my intra-day trades upon reflection were offering earlier opportunities to get on board at better prices thereby reducing my trade risk, and offering a more handsome reward-to-risk potential see later point below.

So I decided to investigate, learn some new ideas and concepts, and see if they could be applied to my intra-day trading. Get in the fight and start attacking the charts — ok, maybe that hyper-aggressiveness is returning anyway there are some great opportunities out there.

I have a good trade plan, some great set-ups and the ability to deliver. It was still healthy, and still on the happy side of asymmetric, but no-where near as good as it used to be. Is it a case of lack of volatility? Upon some reflection I realised that I have spent too much time around new traders who are too scared to go for anything more than small gains — those who jump out of a trade after its hit 1: I have allowed this to influence my thinking — shame on me!

Push myself to get back to bigger asymmetric reward-to-risk ratios. I have no idea. Bunch of cuckoo-clock making, toblerone eating chumps, pissing around with their multi-use and admittedly very handy knives. I take lots of long weekends, and have always worked on the premise that a change is as good as a rest. So spending time in Cheshire, Dublin, London and elsewhere is refreshing for me — and I enjoy being around other traders. What I realised is that at my age all my friends and relatives are married with kids.

Anyway I need to get over that and sort out something. Actually, upon reflection, this sounds fucking brilliant. Get a life you saddo. Recency Bias, and anchoring effect: For those unaware Recency bias is the tendency to think that trends and patterns we observe in the recent past will continue in the future. As for anchoring its a cognitive bias that describes the common human tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information offered when making decisions. Once an anchor is set, other judgments are made by adjusting away from that anchor, and there is a bias toward interpreting other information around the anchor.

We all experience them but I have noticed that I have a real challenge with it. Maybe its a new thing, or maybe its something I always had but have just raised my awareness of it recently. I realise that the trader in me only wants to buy at my price — not at what the market is demanding from me — because I believe it be overvalued. Shame on you Paul! Learn from this raised awareness. Those two biases rarely help you. Put up or shut-up. I have decided based on the points above to give myself a trading challenge.

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